6 Mart 2010 Cumartesi

Buying and Selling Volatility by Connolly Kevin - Free Download

Buying and Selling Volatility by Connolly Kevin


Buying and Selling Volatility — a trading book that describes some really interesting type of trading — a volatility trading. It might be not very useful for Forex traders, because it involves the derivative trading (and it’s not very popular with Forex, spot trading is much more popular), but it will be interesting and useful to other traders and investors who don’t limit themselves to Forex only. Traditional financial trading consists of buying and selling certain instruments and closing the position when the price of the instruments reaches a desired profit level. All that such trader needs is the entry price and the exit price. The difference (positive or negative) is the trader’s profit or loss. Volatility trading offered by Connolly Kevin is different. Volatility trader buys or sells volatility through a complex system of hedged options and other derivative. The benefit of such method is that one can earn successfully on volatile markets without even paying attention to the entry and exit prices of the given instrument.

To make a profit, most individual investors and fund managers are forced to take a view on the direction of the price of something. The traditional investment strategy is to study all the aspects of the market place and decide on the value of the instrument under study. If the instrument is cheap, you buy, and if it is expensive, you sell. The traditional view taken is looking at only one dimension of a price sequence - the direction. Options can allow investors to completely ignore the direction of the price and to concentrate on the second dimension - the volatility of the price. It is possible to construct a portfolio containing a given stock and stock options and be completely indifferent to the direction of the price whilst profiting from the volatility of the price. This text explains, with the use of diagrams, how one can profit from the volatility (or lack of it) of the price of an instrument, irrespective of the direction of the price. It discusses the connection between volatility and options without recourse to complex maths.

Contents of Buying and Selling Volatility

1. An Introduction to the Concept of Volatility Trading
2. A Review of Some Basic Concepts
3. The Price Profile of Derivatives Before Expiry
4. The Simple Long Volatility Trade
5. The Short Volatility Trade
6. Using Put Options in Volatility Trades
7. Managing Combinations of Options
8. More Complex Aspects of Volatility Trading

Appendix: the software

Index.

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11 Şubat 2010 Perşembe

Beyond Technical Analysis How To Develop And Implement A Winning Trading System by Tushar S. Chande

Beyond Technical Analysis :
How To Develop And Implement A Winning Trading System by Tushar S. Chande



Beyond Technical Analysis is in its own way a unique Forex book. It doesn’t offer its readers some specific trading strategies or methods of technical analysis, or anything else of this type that can be found in many other books related to the financial trading. Beyond Technical Analysis shows traders how to create their own strategies based on the methods of technical analysis that work in Forex, futures and equities markets. This Forex book starts off with creating a trading system and ends with a picking a right system for the particular market and conditions. This book is recommended for the advanced traders as it will require some basic knowledge of the trading and familiarity with the trading software, for which the system is going to be developed. It includes the following chapters: developing and implementing trading systems, principles of trading system design, foundations of system design, developing new trading systems, developing trading system variations, equity curve analysis, ideas for money management, data scrambling and a system for trading.

This is a book about designing, testing, and implementing trading sys- tems for the futures and equities markets. The book begins by develop- ing trading systems and ends by defining a system for trading. It focuses exclusively on trading systems. Hence, I have assumed that the reader has at least a working knowledge of technical analysis and is familiar with software for developing technical trading systems.

The book is broadly divided into two parts. The first half deals with development and testing—how the system worked on past data— and discusses basic rules, key issues, and many new systems. The second half explores how the system might do in the future, with a focus on equity curves, risk control, and money management. A key contribution is a new method called "data scrambling," which allows unlimited amounts of synthetic data to be generated for true out-of- sample testing. The last chapter brings all of the material together by offering solutions to practical problems encountered in implementing a trading system.

This book goes beyond technical analysis—it bridges the gap be- tween analysis and trading. It provides a comprehensive treatment of trading systems, and offers a stimulating mix of new ideas, timeless principles, and practical guidelines to help you develop trading systems that work. .

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17 Money Making Candlestick Formations eBook Free Download

17 Money Making Candlestick Formations


17 Money Making Candle Formations — a Forex book that describes 17 most recognized Japanese candlesticks patterns in Forex charts. Japanese candlesticks are one of the oldest and fundamental ways of representing the trading data on all sort of charting software. Japanese candlesticks are made two parts — body and shadow. Body is the difference between the open and close prices. The rising candle’s body and the falling candle’s body are of the different colors. The candlestick can have two shadows — one is the difference between open and high values for the period (open and low for the rising candle) and the other one is the difference between close and low values for the period (close and high for the rising candle). Various combinations of candles’ body and shadow sizes can be considered as the strong indicators of the current market situation and are widely used by professional Forex traders. This Forex book will show you some of the most interesting candlestick formations and will teach you how to use them on Forex market.

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Make The Trend Your Friend In Forex by Kenneth Agostino and Brian Dolan

Make The Trend Your Friend In Forex
by Kenneth Agostino and Brian Dolan


So you didn’t see that last headline-grabbing market move coming? Here are some techniques you can use to make sure you’ll be prepared next time.

Of the many market sayings that traders throw around, none may be more overused and less understood than the adage “The trend is your friend.” All too often, the phrase is used after a trader has taken a countertrend position and subsequently been stopped out at a loss. At this point, remorse sets in, and most traders kick themselves not only for having lost on a countertrend trade but also for not having caught the latest move in the trend itself.

To avoid this all-too-common scenario, let us suggest using several technical tools to identify whether a trend is in place, and then additional indicators to help maximize trading profits. Having a strategy in place to identify trends is essential to successful trading in any market, but especially so in the case of the foreign exchange (forex) markets.

Currencies have a greater tendency to move in trends due to the longer-term macroeconomic elements that drive exchange rates, such as interest rate cycles or global trade imbalances. Currencies are also predisposed to short-term, intraday trends due to international capital flows reacting to day-to-day economic and political news.

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Elliott Wave Principle Applied To The Foreign Exchange Markets by Robert Balan

Elliott Wave Principle Applied To The
Foreign Exchange Markets by Robert Balan


The modern foreign exchange markets date from the early seventies and the eventual breakdown of the Bretton Woods and Smithsonian Agreements on fixed parities. As from 1973 the currencies of the major “free” industrialised economies began to float freely against each other. For the rest of that decade the forex markets were in what is best descibed as their juvenile phase of growth; full of uncertainty and inexperience with varying degrees of liquidity. The markets were dominated out of London and New York whilst the Far-East was a distant third. In general, investors and corporates considered the market to be highly speculative, somewhat illiquid and definitely irrational.

With the arrival of desk-top computing power in the early eighties teclmical analysis and chartism began to make a significant appearance in the Forex markets. The initial reaction of most seasoned traders then, and even by many now, was one of scepticism. These market were considered to be highly unpredictable. The need was for experienced and proven dealers; the thought of technical models that could rationalize the market price action and regularly predict with any accuracy the future movements could not be taken too seriously. This somewhat egotistical approach was in hindsight made more out of ignorance and perhaps with a touch of arrogance rather than from any real understanding of the markets' dynamic fundamentals.

Over the last eight years much has changed. The forex markets now operate fluidly on a 24 hours a day basis from the Monday moming opening in Wellington, New Zealand, until Friday's evening close in New York.

More significantly the U.S. stock exchange crash of October 19th, 1987 demonstrated the legitimacy of the forex markets to be considered not only as the largest, but also one of the most liquid and transparent markets. Amongst banks, investment houses, corporates, institutional and private investors there is now an overriding awareness of the need to dynamically manage their currency exposure and that this management has to be on a continual basis. As this awareness has grown, so has the demand for increased research and analysis into the dynamics of currency movements. lt was from this development the laws of probability and market psychology began to be applied, it is these parameters that form the basic framework of chartism and technical analysis.

The “touch” of the successful “spot” forex trader is in his ability to rapidly rationalize market movements and in the speed ofthe implementation of those trading decisions. These stem from the trader's experiences of repeated market pattems and the inbred feeling of having been there before. In reality the trader is individually and independently analysing the market place as to whether a currency is “overbought” or “oversold” (price action), what the potential for a market move is (riskl reward ratio) and the likelihood of such a move (probability). These are the main foundation blocks of technical analysis.

Chartism as a part of technical analysis enables a rapid visual analysis of any price action, placing it in perspective of the current market trend. This allows for a relatively easy and early recognition of important trading levels. Most dealers now accept resistance and support levels derived from analysing chart pattems, but many do so without appreciating the fundamental concepts behind them. This latter approach is a somewhat fragile one on which to base trading decisions.

Trading decisions using chart pattems and price projections should always be supported by some form of probability analysis on the potential for such a move and also its likely timing. This combination allows for a strong and reliable technical support of trading and investment decisions. It is from this that the decision-maker should then look for the catalyst event that could trigger the movement. The Elliot Wave Principle as with technical analysis in general can not predict economic announcements, but it does recognise with some exactitude the state of the market and the probable price action in response to those statistics or decisions.

The Elliott Wave Principle is exactly that, a principle, but it does endeavour to place the overall market move as well as the short-term wave structure into an order. The primary objective is to establish the presence of the most destructive and thereby the most profitable wave fonnations, be they a 3rd Wave or a C Wave. The application of the Principle is not infallible but when its applied correctly it is overpowering in its market inte|'pretation as well as its success. Above all the Principle accepts implicitly the technical chart patterns used by other systems whether terminal or consolidatory. It is not an altemative, but it places chart formations such asa“l-lead and Shoulders” structure intoalarger orderof events andawider perspective.

'I`urning to the author, Robert Balan, l haveover the last few years seen his concepts take shape, reach a maturity tl1at in the forex market is remarkable. His success rate both in the strategy and thc timing of trades have given rise to hundreds of avid readers throughout the trading world to his published daily market commentaries. One either embraces the tools that can underpin trading decisions or ignore them at one’s own peril. The success of Robert's commentaries clearly demonstrate the respect his analysis commands. Above all, he has the humility to accept a flawed analysis as a fact of life. This book endeavors to show the guidelines and the values that he has developed over the past 12 years in the practical application of the Elliott Wave Principle to the foreign exchange markets. Some of these insights and guidelines are probably unique to Robert's interpretation ofthe Elliot Wave Principle and offer the fact that principles and theories are not inviolate but will over time be advanced from their original concepts.

Michael Salt.

The book is divided into eight parts.

Part I is a general introduction to Elliot Wave analysis and the foreign exchange markets. It outlines the difficulties and possibilities inherent in wave analysis. A brief background is provided.

Part II describes the fundamental concepts of Elliott Wave Analysis. The basic pattems, and their more common variations, are provided in easy-to~compare illustrations. Provided too, are the most common pattem combinations found by thc author in real-time analysis over the past twelve years.

Part III is devoted entirely to deviations from the normal wave relationships, both in terms of ratio, and in form. Examples of substitution of simple patterns by complex ones are also shown in never-before- published illustrations.

Part IV outlines the most common practical guidelines and other observations that should be of value to anyone who is just starting out on wave analysis. Even veteran wave analysts may fmd the insights provided in this extensive body of tips and comments useful and informative. Part V also provides practical tips to the wave analyst who finds the going rough - especially when he or she is stuck with multiple scenarios and has trouble defining the options available.

Part VI outlines atypical Elliott Wave Trading Plan from the initial stages of the traditional tive-wave sequence, through its final corrective Stages, illustrating various optimal trading strategies.

Part VII provides real examples of trading situations written by the author. Daily comments have been assembled into case studies which can be applied for future events.

Part VIII concludes with some insights into the future of wave analysis, including the study of chaos and disorder, the application of fractals and recursive patterns, and other recent works on non-linear dynamics.

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Cashing In On Short-Term Currency Trends free eBook

Cashing In On Short-Term Currency Trends

Trends may be rarer than trading ranges, but that doesn’t mean they can’t be traded. This strategy uses two time frames to identify the trend, an overbought-oversold indicator to pinpoint entry and a trailing stop to protect gains on profitable trades.
BY TIMOTHY O’SULLIVAN

Many technical trading strategies revolve around the assumption that markets will hover withi given range — and within a good reason. Seventy percent of the time markets will bounce back and forth between support and resistance levels, or fluctuate randomly. The rest of the time, market behavior is characterized by persistent price moves — trends — that shatter support andresistance levels.

Although these basic probabilities work against traders who try to exploit trends, the potential rewards can be worth the risk. It is possible to increase your ability to capitalize on t rends by locating trend signals, identifying specific entry points within the trend and using risk management techniques to limit losses.

The following sections will explain how a trading system based on these concepts works especially well in the foreign exchange (Forex), or curre n c y, market, particularly with the “major” currencies — the U.S. dollar, Euro, Japanese yen, British pound, Swiss franc, Canadian dollar and Australian dollar. More than 85 percent of transactions in the $1 trillion per day Forex market involve the majors.

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Practical Fibonacci Methods For Forex Trading e Book by Ken Marshall and Rob Moubray

Practical Fibonacci Methods For Forex Trading e Book
by Ken Marshall and Rob Moubray

The Fibonacci levels are a very powerful tool in trading forex. They can be traded in isolation or in combination with other signals, for example candlesticks, indicators or chart patterns. In this book we will use confirmation signals for entry and exit points.

Buy setups include bullish engulfing candlestick, morning star, tweezer bottom, double bottom and a break of the high of an inside bar. Sell setups includes bearsih engulfing candlestick, eveing star, tweezer top, double top and a break of the low of an inside bar.

The methodology will be demonstrated using real examples using charts and explantions.

One can apply these methhods on any time frame from 5min charts through to weekly charts.

When puttinh fibonacci levels on the charts, one must look back on each time frame for significant highs and lows. This may involve looking back days and even weeks. There are traders trading all the different time frames so Fibonacci lines drawn on weekly or monthly charts will affect the market. Convergence of different Fibonacci levels may occur from levels placed on the different time frame charts. Where convergence occurs, the levels become more significant. It is important to look convergence with Support and Resistance Levels and Trendlines.

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4 Hour MACD Forex Strategy free eBook

4 Hour MACD Forex Strategy e Book

Welcome to the 4 Hour MACD Forex Strategy. This strategy is aimed at simplicity as well as high probability trades. I have been in the equity market for almost ten years now and in the forex market for two years. I learned very early that forex trading is not for the shaky ones. One must have a tested and definite trading strategy as well as well organized discipline to follow the strategy and execute the plan as to the letter. One must be exact and precise.

Therefore I paper traded for almost two years and read everything I could lay my hands on. I bought books and courses. I attend a 5 day live web seminar. All this did not help me at all as it did not fit my style of personality and I just did not seem to connect with all this different strategies. Over two years of watching the graphs with different indicators, moving averages etc. I started to get a feeling for the movement and motion of the market especially the EurUsd around certain moving averages.

It wasn’t till late last year that I discover a setting with the MACD that gives easy to read signals on a regular basis on a 4 hour timeframe. I like the 4 hour timeframe as one are not glued to the screen full time.

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